Who Will Win Us Election 2024. The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in july when president joe biden ended his campaign. Kamala harris moved into a narrow lead in our final update, with her chance of winning rising from 50% to 56%.

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. With no time left before the election, our model reacts sharply to the latest data.